Space weather;
Sunspot groups;
Sunspots;
Zurich classification;
SOLAR-ACTIVITY;
MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE;
DECAY;
GROWTH;
PREDICTION;
BEHAVIOR;
SIZE;
NUMBERS;
SYSTEM;
MODEL;
D O I:
10.1007/s11207-013-0323-7
中图分类号:
P1 [天文学];
学科分类号:
0704 ;
摘要:
The aim of this work is to present a statistical study of several parameters (variables) that define sunspot groups. These variables include maximum area, growth and decay times, as well as the evolution families, and solar-cycle phase the groups belong to. We classified group types based on the Zurich classification, which allows us to define a set of families based on their evolution patterns. The time variation of the area of a group was also studied, and a relationship between the maximum area and the growth and decay times was sought. Another study was carried out to find the correlation among different characteristics of the groups, as well as how the probability of a certain value of decay time can vary depending on morphological characteristics defined by these variables. Thus, a program based on a weight matrix combining the variables necessary to classify a group, together with the calculation of the probability for a specific event, has been produced. This approach allows us to predict the future behavior of a group from its historical evolution.
机构:
Univ Prebiteriana Mackenzie, Ctr Radio Astron & Astrophys CRAAM, Sao Paulo, BrazilUniv Prebiteriana Mackenzie, Ctr Radio Astron & Astrophys CRAAM, Sao Paulo, Brazil
Valio, Adriana
Spagiari, Eduardo
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机构:
Univ Prebiteriana Mackenzie, Fac Computat & Informat, Sao Paulo, BrazilUniv Prebiteriana Mackenzie, Ctr Radio Astron & Astrophys CRAAM, Sao Paulo, Brazil
Spagiari, Eduardo
Marengoni, Mauricio
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机构:
Univ Prebiteriana Mackenzie, Fac Computat & Informat, Sao Paulo, BrazilUniv Prebiteriana Mackenzie, Ctr Radio Astron & Astrophys CRAAM, Sao Paulo, Brazil
Marengoni, Mauricio
Selhorst, Caius L.
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机构:
Univ Cidade Sao Paulo, Univ Cruzeiro Sul, NAT, Sao Paulo, BrazilUniv Prebiteriana Mackenzie, Ctr Radio Astron & Astrophys CRAAM, Sao Paulo, Brazil
机构:
Royal Netherlands Inst Sea Res, NL-1790 AB Den Burg, NetherlandsRoyal Netherlands Inst Sea Res, NL-1790 AB Den Burg, Netherlands
de Jager, C.
Duhau, S.
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机构:
Univ Buenos Aires, Fac Ciencias Exactas & Nat, Dept Fis, RA-1428 Buenos Aires, DF, ArgentinaRoyal Netherlands Inst Sea Res, NL-1790 AB Den Burg, Netherlands
机构:
Chinese Acad Sci, Natl Space Sci Ctr, State Key Lab Space Weather, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R ChinaChinese Acad Sci, Natl Space Sci Ctr, State Key Lab Space Weather, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China