A phylogenetic reconstruction of the epidemiological history of canine rabies virus variants in Colombia

Historically, canine rabies in Colombia has been caused by two geographically distinct canine variants of rabies virus (RV) which between 1992 and 2002 accounted for similar to 95% of Colombian rabies cases. Genetic variant 1 (GV1) has been isolated up until 1997 in the Central Region and the Department of Arauca, and is now considered extinct through a successful vaccination program. Genetic variant 2 (GV2) has been isolated from the northern Caribbean Region and continues to circulate at present. Here we have analyzed two sets of sequence data based upon either a 147 nucleotide region of the glycoprotein (G) gene or a 258 nucleotide region that combines a fragment of the non-coding intergenic region and a fragment of the polymerase gene. Using both maximum likelihood (ML) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods we have estimated the time of the most recent common ancestor (MRCA) of the two variants to be between 1983 and 1988. Reconstructions of the population history suggest that GV2 has been circulating in Colombia since the 1960s and that GV1 evolved as a separate lineage from GV2. Estimations of the effective population size at present show the GV2 outbreak to be similar to 20 times greater than that of GV1. Demographic reconstructions were unable to detect a decrease in population size concurrent with the elimination of GV1. We find a raised rate of nucleotide substitution for GV1 gene sequences when compared to that of GV2, although all estimates have wide confidence limits. We demonstrate that phylogenetic reconstructions and sequence analysis can be used to support incidence data from the field in the assessment of RV epidemiology. (C) 2003 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.