Future Scenarios for United Europe

In the paper the United Europe, in the shape of EU, is described, but also the "cracks" ongoing inside it: first of all the European economic crisis that does not allow to practice a positive internal "soft power", the lack of charismas of the EU elites, the mechanisms of government that weaken the capacity of EU to be effective (for example the rotation of the presidency, creeping internal colonialisms, and so on) are considered. Starting from this present scenario, scenarios for the future are worked out. We can define them in the following ways: 1) the pure catastrophic scenario: it sees the disappearance of the United Europe or this becomes an empty shell; 2) the realistic catastrophic scenario: it sees the United Europe to become an entity in which internal asymmetrical relations take form, completely open towards the strongest states and close enough (for the circulation and rules) towards the internal peripheral or smaller states or more little, operating a kind of colonialism; 3) the realistic ideal scenario: it sees that the United Europe keeps the "promises" made and the "premises" from which it is born, except that its member states are still strong and their "reserve of powers". Outwards the EU always remains and keeps the features of an International Organisation; 4) finally the pure ideal scenario: it sees the transformation of the EU in a federal state, in which the sovereignty of the federate state remains more and more soft so much that it disappears, at least in the aspects of general coordination and of the management of the EU general policies. The discussion of the four scenarios verifies which of them will be carried out in the future: after 10 years, 20 years, 30 years. 40 years. It is more likely that the fifth scenario occurs, that is a scenario that collects elements from each of the scenarios considered before and it assumes a further configuration with respect to those are forecast.