Analysis of a COVID-19 Epidemic Model with Seasonality

被引：9

作者：

Li, Zhimin ^{[1
]}

Zhang, Tailei ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Mem Univ Newfoundland, Dept Math & Stat, St John, NL A1C 5S7, Canada

[2] Changan Univ, Sch Sci, Xian 710064, Peoples R China

来源：

BULLETIN OF MATHEMATICAL BIOLOGY | 2022年 / 84卷 / 12期

基金：

加拿大自然科学与工程研究理事会;

关键词：

COVID-19; Seasonal pattern; Basic reproduction number; Effective reproduction number; Threshold dynamics; PREDICTION; DYNAMICS; TRANSMISSION; PROVINCE;

D O I：

10.1007/s11538-022-01105-4

中图分类号：

Q [生物科学];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

The statistics of COVID-19 cases exhibits seasonal fluctuations in many countries. In this paper, we propose a COVID-19 epidemic model with seasonality and define the basic reproduction number R-0 for the disease transmission. It is proved that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when R-0 < 1, while the disease is uniformly persistent and there exists at least one positive periodic solution when R-0 > 1. Numerically, we observe that there is a globally asymptotically stable positive periodic solution in the case of R-0 > 1. Further, we conduct a case study of the COVID-19 transmission in the USA by using statistical data.

引用

页数：21

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