Endemic-epidemic models to understand COVID-19 spatio-temporal evolution

被引：16

作者：

Celani, Alessandro ^{[1
]}

Giudici, Paolo ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Polytech Univ Marche, Dipartimento Sci Econ & Sociali, Piazzale Raffaele Martelli 8, I-60121 Ancona, Italy

[2] Univ Pavia, Dipartimento Sci Econ & Aziendali, Via San Felice Al Monastero 5, I-27100 Pavia, Italy

来源：

SPATIAL STATISTICS | 2022年 / 49卷

关键词：

Contagion models; Multivariate statistics; COVID-19; Poisson processes; Spatio-temporal models;

D O I：

10.1016/j.spasta.2021.100528

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

We propose an endemic-epidemic model: a negative binomial space-time autoregression, which can be employed to monitor the contagion dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic, both in time and in space. The model is exemplified through an empirical analysis of the provinces of northern Italy, heavily affected by the pandemic and characterized by similar non-pharmaceutical policy interventions. (C) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

引用

页数：15

共 50 条

[1] Evolution of COVID-19 dynamics in Guangdong Province, China: an endemic-epidemic modeling study [J].

Huang, Zitong ;

Lin, Liling ;

Li, Xing ;

Rong, Zuhua ;

Hu, Jianxiong ;

Zhao, Jianguo ;

Zeng, Weilin ;

Zhu, Zhihua ;

Li, Yihong ;

Huang, Yun ;

Zhang, Li ;

Gong, Dexin ;

Xu, Jiaqing ;

Li, Yan ;

Lai, Huibing ;

Zhang, Wangjian ;

Hao, Yuantao ;

Xiao, Jianpeng ;

Lin, Lifeng .

ARCHIVES OF PUBLIC HEALTH, 2024, 82 (01)

[2] The spatio-temporal epidemic dynamics of COVID-19 outbreak in Africa [J].

Gayawan, Ezra ;

Awe, Olushina O. ;

Oseni, Bamidele M. ;

Uzochukwu, Ikemefuna C. ;

Adekunle, Adeshina ;

Samuel, Gbemisola ;

Eisen, Damon P. ;

Adegboye, Oyelola A. .

EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION, 2020, 148

[3] Spatio-temporal dynamic of the COVID-19 epidemic and the impact of imported cases in Rwanda [J].

Semakula, Muhammed ;

Niragire, Francois ;

Nsanzimana, Sabin ;

Remera, Eric ;

Faes, Christel .

BMC PUBLIC HEALTH, 2023, 23 (01)

[4] Spatio-temporal dynamic of the COVID-19 epidemic and the impact of imported cases in Rwanda [J].

Muhammed Semakula ;

François Niragire ;

Sabin Nsanzimana ;

Eric Remera ;

Christel Faes .

BMC Public Health, 23

[5] Spatio-temporal evolution process and integrated measures for prevention and control of COVID-19 epidemic in China [J].

Li G. ;

Wang J. ;

Xu T. ;

Gao X. ;

Jin A. ;

Yu Y. .

Dili Xuebao/Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75 (11) :2475-2489

[6] Spatio-temporal evolution of the COVID-19 across African countries [J].

Naffeti, Bechir ;

Bourdin, Sebastien ;

Ben Aribi, Walid ;

Kebir, Amira ;

Ben Miled, Slimane .

FRONTIERS IN PUBLIC HEALTH, 2022, 10

[7] Spatio-temporal evolution and regional differences of the public opinion on the prevention and control of COVID-19 epidemic in China [J].

Wang J. ;

Zhang M. ;

Han X. ;

Wang X. ;

Zheng L. .

1600, Science Press (75) :2490-2504

[8] Endemic-epidemic modelling of school closure to prevent spread of COVID-19 in Switzerland [J].

Bekker-Nielsen Dunbar, M. ;

Hofmann, F. ;

Meyer, S. ;

Held, L. .

BMC INFECTIOUS DISEASES, 2024, 24 (01)

[9] A mechanistic spatio-temporal modeling of COVID-19 data [J].

Briz-Redon, Alvaro ;

Iftimi, Adina ;

Mateu, Jorge ;

Romero-Garcia, Carolina .

BIOMETRICAL JOURNAL, 2023, 65 (01)

[10] Spatio-Temporal Spread Pattern of COVID-19 in Italy [J].

D'Angelo, Nicoletta ;

Abbruzzo, Antonino ;

Adelfio, Giada .

MATHEMATICS, 2021, 9 (19)

← 1 2 3 4 5 →