Analysis of Influencing Factors for Credit Risk of China Real Estate Companies Based on Logistic Model

The credit default risk of the real estate companies is increasing rapidly, so its analysis and control have important practical significance. This paper analyzed the influence of various factors on the credit default risk of real estate companies in China from three levels, namely macro-economy level, meso-industry level and micro-company level. Principal component analysis (PCA) method and Logistic model were taken to assess and predict the credit default risk of real estate companies in China and we compared the predictive ability of Logistic model with 4 other commonly used risk assessment models. Logistic model showed stronger assessment and prediction ability, and in addition to financial factors, Macro-economy Factor also affect the credit default risk of real estate companies in China seriously.