Identification of Currency Crises: The Empirical Analysis Based on the Binary Regression Tree

Emerging markets for central, in order to anatomize currency crises, currency crises were decomposed as the macroeconomic-vulnerability crisis, the self-fulfill crisis, the competitiveness- decline crisis, the bank-crises-lead crisis, the debt-default crisis, the capital-flow-reversal crisis and the contagious crisis. According to the choice of identifying indicators, a two-layer identifying system was build. An empirical analysis, which used binary regression tree and the quarter data for the eight countries, identified the six forms of currency crises in emerging markets. Results show that the expected exchange rates and the domestic credit have stronger warning to the currency crises.