Optimal design of multi-energy complementary power generation system considering fossil energy scarcity coefficient under uncertainty

被引：19

作者：

Zhu, Ying ^{[1
]}

Tong, Quanling ^{[2
]}

Yan, Xiaxia ^{[2
]}

Liu, Yanzheng ^{[2
]}

Zhang, Junlong ^{[3
]}

Li, Yongping ^{[4
]}

Huang, Guohe ^{[5
]}

机构：

[1] Xian Univ Architecture & Technol, Sch Environm & Municipal Engn, Shaanxi Key Lab Environm Engn, State Key Lab Green Bldg Western China, Xian 710055, Peoples R China

[2] Xian Univ Architecture & Technol, Sch Environm & Municipal Engn, Xian 710055, Peoples R China

[3] Qingdao Univ, Coll Environm Sci & Engn, Qingdao 266071, Shandong, Peoples R China

[4] Beijing Normal Univ, Sch Environm, Environm & Energy Syst Engn Res Ctr, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China

[5] Univ Regina, Canadian Acad Engn, Environm Syst Engn Program, Fac Engn, Regina, SK S4S 0A2, Canada

来源：

JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION | 2020年 / 274卷

基金：

中国国家自然科学基金;

关键词：

Optimal design; Multi-energy complementary power generation system; Copula function; Fossil energy scarcity coefficient; Uncertainty; HEAT-PUMP SYSTEM; SOUTH CHINA SEA; LONG-TERM WIND; MANAGEMENT; BATTERY; ISLAND; STRATEGY; MODEL; PV;

D O I：

10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.122732

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

At present, most island energy supply is highly dependent on long-distance transportation of fossil energy, which give rise to high cost and risk of energy supply system. Therefore, establishment a multi-energy complementary power generation system (MECP) is an urgent need to realize a safe and efficient energy supply model in that region. In this study, a copula-based interval full-infinite programming (CIFP) method was developed for optimal design MECP. CIFP method not only can be used to represent a variety of uncertainties with interval values, functional intervals and probability distributions, but also can reflect the uncertainty between random variables with different probability distributions of unknown correlations. Then, based on CIFP method, a CIFP-MECP model formulated for optimal designing MECP in an island of South China Sea. In this model, considering eight fossil energy scarcity coefficients for nine constraint-violation levels. Results reveal that uncertainties existed in system components have significant effects on outputs of decision variables and system total cost, and variation of system cost reached [49.48%, 56.25%]. Results also disclose that the proportion of renewable energy generation increased gradually with the increase of fossil energy scarcity coefficient, and when Scarcity = 30, the proportion reached the maximum, accounting for [98.54%, 99.10%]. Through this study of island MECP, the use of renewable energy is increased and the proportion of fossil energy in energy structure is greatly reduced, so as to reduce the generation of pollutants and provide a feasible basis for the island to use clean energy. This study can help decision maker identify the dynamic characteristics of regional power generation system, determine the required decision-making schemes and analyze the effects of interactions among multiple uncertainties on system outputs. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页数：19

共 40 条

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