Making forecasts for chaotic physical processes

被引：24

作者：

Danforth, CM ^{[1
]}

Yorke, JA ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Maryland, College Pk, MD 20742 USA

来源：

PHYSICAL REVIEW LETTERS | 2006年 / 96卷 / 14期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1103/PhysRevLett.96.144102

中图分类号：

O4 [物理学];

学科分类号：

0702 ;

摘要：

Making a prediction for a chaotic physical process involves specifying the probability associated with each possible outcome. Ensembles of solutions are frequently used to estimate this probability distribution. However, for a typical chaotic physical system H and model L of that system, no solution of L remains close to H for all time. We propose an alternative. This Letter shows how to inflate or systematically perturb the ensemble of solutions of L so that some ensemble member remains close to H for orders of magnitude longer than unperturbed solutions of L. This is true even when the perturbations are significantly smaller than the model error.

引用

页数：4

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