The impacts avoided with a 1.5 A°C climate target: a global and regional assessment

被引:23
作者
Arnell, Nigel W. [1 ,2 ]
Lowe, Jason A. [3 ,4 ]
Lloyd-Hughes, Ben [5 ]
Osborn, Timothy J. [6 ]
机构
[1] Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading, Berks, England
[2] Univ Reading, Walker Inst, Reading, Berks, England
[3] Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England
[4] Univ Leeds, Priestley Ctr, Leeds, W Yorkshire, England
[5] Univ Reading, Inst Environm Analyt, Reading, Berks, England
[6] Univ East Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Climat Res Unit, Norwich, Norfolk, England
关键词
D O I
10.1007/s10584-017-2115-9
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
The 2015 Paris Agreement commits countries to pursue efforts to limit the increase in global mean temperature to 1.5 A degrees C above pre-industrial levels. We assess the consequences of achieving this target in 2100 for the impacts that are avoided, using several indicators of impact (exposure to drought, river flooding, heat waves and demands for heating and cooling energy). The proportion of impacts that are avoided is not simply equal to the proportional reduction in temperature. At the global scale, the median proportion of projected impacts avoided by the 1.5 A degrees C target relative to a rise of 4 A degrees C ranges between 62 and 95% across sectors: the greatest reduction is for heat wave impacts. The 1.5 A degrees C target results in impacts that would be between 27 and 62% lower than with the 2 A degrees C target. For each indicator, there are differences in the proportions of impacts avoided between regions depending on exposure and the regional changes in climate (particularly precipitation). Uncertainty in the proportion of impacts that are avoided for a specific sector depends on the range in the shape of the relationship between global temperature change and impact, and this varies between sectors.
引用
收藏
页码:61 / 76
页数:16
相关论文
共 23 条
  • [1] Global-scale climate impact functions: the relationship between climate forcing and impact
    Arnell, N. W.
    Brown, S.
    Gosling, S. N.
    Hinkel, J.
    Huntingford, C.
    Lloyd-Hughes, B.
    Lowe, J. A.
    Osborn, T.
    Nicholls, R. J.
    Zelazowski, P.
    [J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE, 2016, 134 (03) : 475 - 487
  • [2] The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale
    Arnell, Nigel W.
    Gosling, Simon N.
    [J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE, 2016, 134 (03) : 387 - 401
  • [3] The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century
    Fricko, Oliver
    Havlik, Petr
    Rogelj, Joeri
    Klimont, Zbigniew
    Gusti, Mykola
    Johnson, Nils
    Kolp, Peter
    Strubegger, Manfred
    Valin, Hugo
    Amann, Markus
    Ermolieva, Tatiana
    Forsell, Nicklas
    Herrero, Mario
    Heyes, Chris
    Kindermann, Georg
    Krey, Volker
    McCollum, David L.
    Obersteiner, Michael
    Pachauri, Shonali
    Rao, Shilpa
    Schmid, Erwin
    Schoepp, Wolfgang
    Riahi, Keywan
    [J]. GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS, 2017, 42 : 251 - 267
  • [4] Ongoing climate change following a complete cessation of carbon dioxide emissions
    Gillett, Nathan P.
    Arora, Vivek K.
    Zickfeld, Kirsten
    Marshall, Shawn J.
    Merryfield, Andwilliam J.
    [J]. NATURE GEOSCIENCE, 2011, 4 (02) : 83 - 87
  • [5] Simulating current global river runoff with a global hydrological model: model revisions, validation, and sensitivity analysis
    Gosling, Simon N.
    Arnell, Nigel W.
    [J]. HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, 2011, 25 (07) : 1129 - 1145
  • [6] Multimodel Estimate of the Global Terrestrial Water Balance: Setup and First Results
    Haddeland, Ingjerd
    Clark, Douglas B.
    Franssen, Wietse
    Ludwig, Fulco
    Voss, Frank
    Arnell, Nigel W.
    Bertrand, Nathalie
    Best, Martin
    Folwell, Sonja
    Gerten, Dieter
    Gomes, Sandra
    Gosling, Simon N.
    Hagemann, Stefan
    Hanasaki, Naota
    Harding, Richard
    Heinke, Jens
    Kabat, Pavel
    Koirala, Sujan
    Oki, Taikan
    Polcher, Jan
    Stacke, Tobias
    Viterbo, Pedro
    Weedon, Graham P.
    Yeh, Pat
    [J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY, 2011, 12 (05) : 869 - 884
  • [7] Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations - the CRU TS3.10 Dataset
    Harris, I.
    Jones, P. D.
    Osborn, T. J.
    Lister, D. H.
    [J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2014, 34 (03) : 623 - 642
  • [8] Hirabayashi Y, 2013, NAT CLIM CHANGE, V3, P816, DOI [10.1038/nclimate1911, 10.1038/NCLIMATE1911]
  • [9] Modeling global residential sector energy demand for heating and air conditioning in the context of climate change
    Isaac, Morna
    van Vuuren, Detlef P.
    [J]. ENERGY POLICY, 2009, 37 (02) : 507 - 521
  • [10] Characterizing half-a-degree difference: a review of methods for identifying regional climate responses to global warming targets
    James, Rachel
    Washington, Richard
    Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich
    Rogelj, Joeri
    Conway, Declan
    [J]. WILEY INTERDISCIPLINARY REVIEWS-CLIMATE CHANGE, 2017, 8 (02)