Current European flood-rich period exceptional compared with past 500 years

被引：207

作者：

Bloeschl, Guenter ^{[1
]}

Kiss, Andrea ^{[1
]}

Viglione, Alberto ^{[2
]}

Barriendos, Mariano ^{[3
]}

Boehm, Oliver ^{[4
]}

Brazdil, Rudolf ^{[5
,6
]}

Coeur, Denis ^{[7
]}

Demaree, Gaston ^{[8
]}

Llasat, Maria Carmen ^{[9
]}

Macdonald, Neil ^{[10
]}

Retso, Dag ^{[11
]}

Roald, Lars ^{[12
]}

Schmocker-Fackel, Petra ^{[13
]}

Amorim, Ines ^{[14
]}

Belinova, Monika ^{[6
]}

Benito, Gerardo ^{[15
]}

Bertolin, Chiara ^{[16
]}

Camuffo, Dario ^{[17
]}

Cornel, Daniel ^{[18
]}

Doktor, Radoslaw ^{[19
]}

Elleder, Libor ^{[20
]}

Enzi, Silvia ^{[21
]}

Garcia, Joao Carlos ^{[22
]}

Glaser, Ruediger ^{[23
]}

Hall, Julia ^{[1
]}

Haslinger, Klaus ^{[2
]}

Hofstaetter, Michael ^{[24
]}

Komma, Juergen ^{[1
]}

Limanowka, Danuta ^{[25
]}

Lun, David ^{[1
]}

Panin, Andrei ^{[26
,27
]}

Parajka, Juraj ^{[1
]}

Petric, Hrvoje ^{[28
]}

Rodrigo, Fernando S. ^{[29
]}

Rohr, Christian ^{[30
]}

Schoenbein, Johannes ^{[23
]}

Schulte, Lothar ^{[31
]}

Silva, Luis Pedro ^{[32
]}

Toonen, Willem H. J. ^{[33
]}

Valent, Peter ^{[1
,34
]}

Waser, Juergen ^{[18
]}

Wetter, Oliver ^{[30
]}

机构：

[1] Vienna Univ Technol, Inst Hydraul Engn & Water Resources Management, Vienna, Austria

[2] Politecn Torino, Dept Environm Land & Infrastruct Engn DIATI, Turin, Italy

[3] Univ Barcelona, Dept Hist & Archaeol, Barcelona, Spain

[4] Univ Augsburg, Inst Geog, Augsburg, Germany

[5] Masaryk Univ, Inst Geog, Brno, Czech Republic

[6] Czech Acad Sci, Global Change Res Inst, Brno, Czech Republic

[7] ACTHYS Diffus, Grenoble, France

[8] Royal Meteorol Inst Belgium, Brussels, Belgium

[9] Univ Barcelona, Dept Appl Phys, Barcelona, Spain

[10] Univ Liverpool, Sch Environm Sci, Dept Geog & Planning, Liverpool, Merseyside, England

[11] Stockholm Univ, Dept Econ Hist & Int Relat, Stockholm, Sweden

[12] Norwegian Water Resources & Energy Directorate, Oslo, Norway

[13] Fed Off Environm FOEN, Hydrol Div, Bern, Switzerland

[14] Univ Porto, Dept Hist Polit & Int Studies, Porto, Portugal

[15] CSIC, Natl Museum Nat Sci, Dept Geol, Madrid, Spain

[16] Norwegian Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Mech & Ind Engn, Trondheim, Norway

[17] CNR, Inst Atmospher Sci & Climate, Padua, Italy

[18] VRVis Res Ctr Virtual Real & Visualizat, Vienna, Austria

[19] Natl Res Inst, Inst Meteorol & Water Management, Ctr Flood & Drought Modelling, Warsaw, Poland

[20] Czech Hydrometeorol Inst, Prague, Czech Republic

[21] Kleio Studio Associate Res Co, Padua, Italy

[22] Univ Porto, Fac Arts, Porto, Portugal

[23] Univ Freiburg, Dept Phys Geog, Freiburg, Germany

[24] Cent Inst Meteorol & Geodynam ZAMG, Climate Res Dept, Vienna, Austria

[25] Natl Res Inst, Inst Meteorol & Water Management, Ctr Polands Climate Monitoring, Krakow, Poland

[26] Russian Acad Sci, Inst Geog, Moscow, Russia

[27] Lomonosov Moscow State Univ, Moscow, Russia

[28] Univ Zagreb, Fac Humanities & Social Sci, Dept Hist, Zagreb, Croatia

[29] Univ Almeria, Dept Chem & Phys, Almeria, Spain

[30] Univ Bern, Hist Inst, Dept Econ Social & Environm Hist, Bern, Switzerland

[31] Univ Barcelona, Dept Geog, Barcelona, Spain

[32] Univ Porto, Transdisciplinary Res Ctr Culture Space & Memory, Porto, Portugal

[33] Univ Utrecht, Dept Phys Geog, Utrecht, Netherlands

[34] Slovak Univ Technol Bratislava, Fac Civil Engn, Dept Land & Water Resources Management, Bratislava, Slovakia

来源：

NATURE | 2020年 / 583卷 / 7817期

基金：

欧洲研究理事会; 欧盟地平线“2020”; 奥地利科学基金会;

关键词：

HISTORICAL FLOODS; VB CYCLONES; ATLANTIC; VARIABILITY; CLIMATE; DOCUMENTARY; FREQUENCY; PATTERNS; EVENTS; REGION;

D O I：

10.1038/s41586-020-2478-3

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

There are concerns that recent climate change is altering the frequency and magnitude of river floods in an unprecedented way(1). Historical studies have identified flood-rich periods in the past half millennium in various regions of Europe(2). However, because of the low temporal resolution of existing datasets and the relatively low number of series, it has remained unclear whether Europe is currently in a flood-rich period from a long-term perspective. Here we analyse how recent decades compare with the flood history of Europe, using a new database composed of more than 100 high-resolution (sub-annual) historical flood series based on documentary evidence covering all major regions of Europe. We show that the past three decades were among the most flood-rich periods in Europe in the past 500 years, and that this period differs from other flood-rich periods in terms of its extent, air temperatures and flood seasonality. We identified nine flood-rich periods and associated regions. Among the periods richest in floods are 1560-1580 (western and central Europe), 1760-1800 (most of Europe), 1840-1870 (western and southern Europe) and 1990-2016 (western and central Europe). In most parts of Europe, previous flood-rich periods occurred during cooler-than-usual phases, but the current flood-rich period has been much warmer. Flood seasonality is also more pronounced in the recent period. For example, during previous flood and interflood periods, 41 per cent and 42 per cent of central European floods occurred in summer, respectively, compared with 55 per cent of floods in the recent period. The exceptional nature of the present-day flood-rich period calls for process-based tools for flood-risk assessment that capture the physical mechanisms involved, and management strategies that can incorporate the recent changes in risk. Analysis of thousands of historical documents recording floods in Europe shows that flooding characteristics in recent decades are unlike those of previous centuries.

引用

页码：560 / +

页数：17

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