Pre-harvest forecasting of county wheat yield and wheat quality using weather information

County wheat yield and wheat quality are forecast using weather information. Regression models are estimated to account for the effect of weather on county wheat yield, protein, and test weight. The explanatory variables include precipitation and temperature for growing periods that correspond to biological wheat development stages. Wheat yield, protein, and test weight are strongly influenced by weather. The forecasting power of the yield and protein models is enhanced by adding a spatial lag effect. Out of sample forecasting tests confirm the models' usefulness in predicting wheat yield and wheat quality. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.