Markov chain Monte Carlo: Can we trust the third significant figure?

被引:228
作者
Flegal, James M. [1 ]
Haran, Murali [2 ]
Jones, Galin L. [3 ]
机构
[1] Univ Calif Riverside, Dept Stat, Riverside, CA 92521 USA
[2] Penn State Univ, Dept Stat, University Pk, PA 16802 USA
[3] Univ Minnesota, Sch Stat, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA
关键词
convergence diagnostic; Markov chain; Monte Carlo; standard errors;
D O I
10.1214/08-STS257
中图分类号
O21 [概率论与数理统计]; C8 [统计学];
学科分类号
020208 ; 070103 ; 0714 ;
摘要
Current reporting of results based on Markov chain Monte Carlo computations could be improved. In particular, a measure of the accuracy of the resulting estimates is rarely reported. Thus we have little ability to objectively assess the quality of the reported estimates. We address this issue in that we discuss why Monte Carlo standard errors are important, how they can be easily calculated in Markov chain Monte Carlo and how they can be used to decide when to stop the simulation. We compare their use to a popular alternative in the context of two examples.
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页码:250 / 260
页数:11
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