A critical examination of models and projections of demand in water utility resource planning in England and Wales

Demand modelling plays a vital role in water resource management yet has rarely been critically reviewed. This paper adopts a critical realist framework for a historical analysis of demand modelling practices and their role in long-term water resource management in England and Wales from 1945 to 2010. It then focuses on recent domestic demand models in the English and Welsh private water sector. A critique of scientific realist assumptions regarding demand models is presented and the role of the current regulatory environment in encouraging a highly strategic use of demand models is discussed. Policy recommendations toward more effective modelling practices are made.