Impact of historical and future land use land cover on spatial-temporal variation of discharge and sediment load of Upper Tapi Basin, India

Trend detection of discharge and sediment load is vital to adopt suitable conservation measures as per the changes occurring. In presentstudy, trends of daily streamflow and sediment load for Upper Tapi Basin are analyzed using Mann-Kendall, Modified MannKendall, and Inno-vative Trend Analysis and change points are found using Pettitt tests from 1985 to 2020 to determine time series'trend with the statisticalsignificance. Land use land cover (LULC) for Upper Tapi Basin is prepared for three decades (1989-2020). Innovative trend analysis has shownnon-monotonicity in the time series with decreasing trend. The streamflow is found to be significantly decreasing in the basin. Decline insediment load is observed in Burhanpur and Gopalkheda while increasing trend in Yerli G.S. The rise in anthropogenic activities is mainreason behind reduction in suspended sediment load (SSL) over the basin. The decadal analysis of LULC showed increase in built-up area(18.3%), barren land (5-8%), waterbodies (1.2-1.9%) agricultural land (50-60.79%) and decrease in vegetation (43-21%). The LULC for 2030is predicted with Land Change Modeler (LCM) in IDRISI Terrset. The estimated LULC shows that built-up area will expand as agriculturalland decreases. The overall study indicates that anthropogenic activities will increase in upcoming future.