Development of a model to simulate infection dynamics of Mycobacterium bovis in cattle herds in the United States

Objective-To develop a mathematical model to simulate infection dynamics of Mycobacterium bovis in cattle herds in the United States and predict efficacy of the current national control strategy for tuberculosis in cattle. Design-Stochastic simulation model. Sample-Theoretical cattle herds in the United States. Procedures-A model of within-herd M bovis transmission dynamics following introduction of 1 latently infected cow was developed. Frequency- and density-dependent transmission modes and 3 tuberculin test based culling strategies (no test-based culling, constant [annual] testing with test-based culling, and the current strategy of slaughterhouse detection based testing and culling) were investigated. Results were evaluated for 3 herd sizes over a 10-year period and validated via simulation of known outbreaks of M bovis infection. Results-On the basis of 1,000 simulations (1,000 herds each) at replacement rates typical for dairy cattle (0.33/y), median time to detection of M bovis infection in medium-sized herds (276 adult cattle) via slaughterhouse surveillance was 27 months after introduction, and 58% of these herds would spontaneously clear the infection prior to that time. Sixty-two percent of medium-sized herds without intervention and 99% of those managed with constant test based culling were predicted to clear infection < 10 years after introduction. The model predicted observed outbreaks best for frequency-dependent transmission, and probability of clearance was most sensitive to replacement rate. Conclusions and Clinical Relevance-Although modeling indicated the current national control strategy was sufficient for elimination of M bovis infection from dairy herds after detection, slaughterhouse surveillance was not sufficient to detect M bovis infection in all herds and resulted in subjectively delayed detection, compared with the constant testing method. Further research is required to economically optimize this strategy.