THE IMPACT OF THE MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY ON THE ECONOMIC CYCLE OF EUROPEAN UNION COUNTRIES

The manufacturing industry is a key sector in many national economies and is involved in creating sustainable economic growth. At the same time, it is a sector sensitive to internal and external impacts that result in fluctuations in the economic cycle, copying its development or even outstripping the development of economic cycles. The main objective of this contribution was to identify the relationship between manufacturing and GDP, which represents the economic cycle in European Union countries. The time series of selected indicators of the manufacturing industry and GDP from the Eurostat database for Q1 2000-Q4 2016 were used for analysis purposes. An analysis of 296 time series with a quarterly periodicity from 22 EU countries (including the United Kingdom) was performed. The results of analyses indicate that the processing industry is a sector with significant cyclical behavior. In most countries, production and sales in the manufacturing industry behaved as concurrent indicators, changes in production and sales almost immediately reflected in the growth or decline in GDP. Labor market indicators have been shown to be delayed cyclical indicators. Changes in the economic development of the countries have a strong impact on employment, the remuneration of employees and the number of hours worked in the sector. Strong cyclical industries must be constantly monitored, as negative changes in these sectors will automatically exacerbate the economic cycle recession. The results of our analyses represent a valuable platform for economic policy makers and regional strategic plans.