Wave climate simulation for southern region of the South China Sea

This study investigates long-term variability and wave characteristic trends in the southern region of the South China Sea (SCS). We implemented the state-of-the art WAVEWATCH III spectral wave model to simulate a 31-year wave hindcast. The simulation results were used to assess the inter-annual variability and long-term changes in the SCS wave climate for the period 1979 to 2009. The model was forced with Climate Forecast System Reanalysis winds and validated against altimeter data and limited available measurements from an Acoustic Wave and Current recorder located offshore of Terengganu, Malaysia. The mean annual significant wave height and peak wave period indicate the occurrence of higher wave heights and wave periods in the central SCS and lower in the Sunda shelf region. Consistent with wind patterns, the wave direction also shows southeasterly (northwesterly) waves during the summer (winter) monsoon. This detailed hindcast demonstrates strong inter-annual variability of wave heights, especially during the winter months in the SCS. Significant wave height correlated negatively with Nio3.4 index during winter, spring and autumn seasons but became positive in the summer monsoon. Such correlations correspond well with surface wind anomalies over the SCS during El Nino events. During El Nio Modoki, the summer time positive correlation extends northeastwards to cover the entire domain. Although significant positive trends were found at 95 % confidence levels during May, July and September, there is significant negative trend in December covering the Sunda shelf region. However, the trend appears to be largely influenced by large El Nio signals.