Regional climate change projections for the Northeast USA

被引:200
作者
Hayhoe, Katharine [1 ,2 ]
Wake, Cameron [3 ]
Anderson, Bruce [4 ]
Liang, Xin-Zhong [5 ]
Maurer, Edwin [6 ]
Zhu, Jinhong [5 ]
Bradbury, James [7 ]
DeGaetano, Art [8 ]
Stoner, Anne Marie [9 ]
Wuebbles, Donald [9 ]
机构
[1] Texas Tech Univ, Dept Geosci, Lubbock, TX 79409 USA
[2] ATMOS Res & Consulting, Lubbock, TX USA
[3] Univ New Hampshire, Inst Study Earth Oceans & Space, Durham, NH 03824 USA
[4] Boston Univ, Dept Geog & Environm, Boston, MA 02215 USA
[5] Illinois State Water Survey, Champaign, IL 61820 USA
[6] Santa Clara Univ, Dept Civil Engn, Santa Clara, CA 95053 USA
[7] Univ Massachusetts, Climate Syst Res Ctr, Dept Geosci, Amherst, MA 01003 USA
[8] Cornell Univ, NE Reg Climate Ctr, Dept Earth & Atmospher Sci, Ithaca, NY USA
[9] Univ Illinois, Dept Atmospher Sci, Urbana, IL 61801 USA
基金
美国国家环境保护局;
关键词
Climate change; Downscaling; General circulation model; Greenhouse gas emission scenarios; Northeast United States;
D O I
10.1007/s11027-007-9133-2
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
Climate projections at relevant temporal and spatial scales are essential to assess potential future climate change impacts on climatologically diverse regions such as the northeast United States. Here, we show how both statistical and dynamical downscaling methods applied to relatively coarse-scale atmosphere-ocean general circulation model output are able to improve simulation of spatial and temporal variability in temperature and precipitation across the region. We then develop high-resolution projections of future climate change across the northeast USA, using IPCC SRES emission scenarios combined with these downscaling methods. The projections show increases in temperature that are larger at higher latitudes and inland, as well as the potential for changing precipitation patterns, particularly along the coast. While the absolute magnitude of change expected over the coming century depends on the sensitivity of the climate system to human forcing, significantly higher increases in temperature and in winter precipitation are expected under a higher as compared to lower scenario of future emissions from human activities.
引用
收藏
页码:425 / 436
页数:12
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