Normalizing the causality between time series

被引:104
作者
Liang, X. San [1 ,2 ]
机构
[1] Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Nanjing Inst Meteorol, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
[2] Cent Univ Finance & Econ, China Inst Adv Study, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China
来源
PHYSICAL REVIEW E | 2015年 / 92卷 / 02期
基金
美国国家科学基金会;
关键词
INFORMATION-FLOW;
D O I
10.1103/PhysRevE.92.022126
中图分类号
O35 [流体力学]; O53 [等离子体物理学];
学科分类号
070204 ; 080103 ; 080704 ;
摘要
Recently, a rigorous yet concise formula was derived to evaluate information flow, and hence the causality in a quantitative sense, between time series. To assess the importance of a resulting causality, it needs to be normalized. The normalization is achieved through distinguishing a Lyapunov exponent-like, one-dimensional phase-space stretching rate and a noise-to-signal ratio from the rate of information flow in the balance of the marginal entropy evolution of the flow recipient. It is verified with autoregressive models and applied to a real financial analysis problem. An unusually strong one-way causality is identified from IBM (International Business Machines Corporation) to GE (General Electric Company) in their early era, revealing to us an old story, which has almost faded into oblivion, about "Seven Dwarfs" competing with a giant for the mainframe computer market.
引用
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页数:6
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