Decline in pre-school use in post-socialist societies: the case of Bulgaria

Child care is often analysed in its role as facilitator of women's labour-force participation. However, for pre-school-aged children, child care can also contribute in important ways to human-capital development, especially among poor children. By international standards, pre-school enrolments were high under socialism. Since transition, however, enrolment rates have declined. This may leave large numbers of children without the preparation necessary to succeed in school and to be included in the region's post-socialist development. We examine the changing dynamics of preschool enrolment in Bulgaria. We evaluate demand and supply-side explanations for changing enrolments and use municipal-level data to develop a simple model of demand. We examine the impact of changing employment and earnings, proximity and perceived quality of child-care centres, as well as ethnic/cultural background. Through this model, we hope to broaden understanding of preschool enrolment decisions, and to assist policymakers in improving pre-school attendance.