Scenario Analysis of Carbon Emissions in Jiangxi Transportation Industry Based on LEAP Model

Transportation industry is an important field to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and climate change. Scenario analysis of transportation industry can provide theoretical support to the formulation and implementation of carbon emissions reduction policy. In view of this, The transportation industry of Jiangxi province will be given into four departments including civil aviation, railways, highways and waterways, and it was used the LEAP model to set three scenarios in the different application of economic development mode and different traffic development mode, then forecasted the main carbon emissions of Jiangxi transportation industry in 2010-2030, and analyzed the result of forecasting. It shown that the way to ease the nervous energy supply and the pressure of carbon emissions, and achieve the sustainable development of energy and the environment, must be set the four departments of reasonable transportation distribution under the condition of different energy sources, and increase the scope of using the new energy and renewable energy.