Energy Portfolio Simulation Considering Environmental and Public Health Impacts

Traditional thermal electricity production is associated with undesirable public health and environment consequences. There is growing interest in the production of electricity from renewable sources such as wind, solar, and biomass. Not unlike traditional power generation, renewable electricity production also must strike a balance among cost, reliability, and compatibility. Certainly the economic and health benefits make renewables a consideration for regions endowed with natural resources that facilitate such enterprises. The 'business' of electricity generation may also be a stimulus for job and wealth creation in a region. A portfolio mix of production methods that maximizes the economic benefits while minimizing the negative health and environmental impacts is attractive. This paper utilizes a system dynamics approach to model the dynamics and effects associated with various energy portfolios mixes. This research introduces a model that can be used to assess complex electricity portfolios, ones that quantify environmental and public health impacts for a region. To demonstrate its functionality, the model is both calibrated and simulated on the U.S. Hampton Roads - Peninsula Region for the years 1996 through 2002.