Linking groundwater, contaminant transport, and water distribution models to determine the uncertainty of drinking water contaminant exposure

Contaminant transport and water distribution models can be linked to assess the historical risk and uncertainty of drinking water contaminant exposure from a water distribution system that has been contaminated at a well head. A 1000 trial Monte Carlo analysis using distributed computing was performed with a transient groundwater flow and contaminant transport model. The resulting stochastic concentration breakthrough curves at the wells were used as concentration sources in the transient water distribution system model. Several water distribution models were created to account for network growth, and changing seasonal demand. Stochastic concentration breakthrough curves were then developed for each consumer node over a 17 year period. Contaminant exposures differ depending on the consumer node location, the time of year and the time of day. Uncertainty in groundwater modelling has been linked to a water distribution system to determine the uncertainty of contaminant exposure at a consumer node.