Recent advances and applications in the field of short-term traffic forecasting

Frequent road traffic congestion is now a global issue. One of the proposed solutions to this problem is dynamic traffic management (DTM): the management of traffic flows, vehicles and traffic demand based on data representing the current and near expected traffic situation. A key ingredient for DTM is accurate network-wide short-term traffic forecasts. This article gives a general overview of the state of the art together with some recent advances and applications derived from a number of field trials conducted as part of the DRIVE-II programme of the Commission of the European Communities. The article gives an introduction to DTM, and reviews the nature of traffic demand and supply and the traffic measurement process. The statistical methodology of short-term forecasts applied in transport is discussed and the articles in this issue are introduced. Mention is made of as yet unresolved problems. The article concludes that a great deal of work still remains to be done before the current methodology can consistently provide the desired level of accuracy needed for DTM. In the near future, more research will be needed and carried out, both with respect to methods already available, to methods available but not yet applied and perhaps to develop new methodology.