The influence of NAFTA on socio-economic variables for the US-Mexico border region

This paper analyses the relationship between the increased levels of trade moving through one of the busiest regions on the southern border of the US and three socio-economic variables: employment; per capita income; and unemployment rates. The authors use non-parametric regression and bootstrapping techniques to measure the significance in the rates of change of the three socio-economic variables versus both time and trade. The growth rates in employment and per capita income are found to be significantly lower post NAFTA while the rate of change in the unemployment rate stays constant.