Impact of population aging on trends in diabetes prevalence: A meta-regression analysis of 160,000 Japanese adults

被引:98
作者
Charvat, Hadrien [1 ]
Goto, Atsushi [2 ]
Goto, Maki [2 ]
Inoue, Machiko [3 ]
Heianza, Yoriko [7 ]
Arase, Yasuji [4 ]
Sone, Hirohito [7 ]
Nakagami, Tomoko [5 ]
Song, Xin [8 ,9 ]
Qiao, Qing [8 ,9 ,10 ]
Tuomilehto, Jaakko [9 ,11 ,12 ]
Tsugane, Shoichiro [1 ]
Noda, Mitsuhiko [2 ]
Inoue, Manami [6 ]
机构
[1] Teikyo Univ, Epidemiol & Prevent Grp, Res Ctr Canc Prevent & Screening, Natl Canc Ctr, Tokyo, Japan
[2] Teikyo Univ, Dept Diabet Res, Natl Ctr Global Hlth & Med, Tokyo, Japan
[3] Teikyo Univ, Gen Med Educ Ctr, Tokyo, Japan
[4] Toranomon Gen Hosp, Hlth Management Ctr, Tokyo, Japan
[5] Tokyo Womens Med Univ, Ctr Diabet, Tokyo, Japan
[6] Univ Tokyo, Grad Sch Med, AXA Dept Hlth & Human Secur, Tokyo, Japan
[7] Niigata Univ, Fac Med, Dept Internal Med, Niigata, Japan
[8] Univ Helsinki, Dept Publ Hlth, FIN-00014 Helsinki, Finland
[9] Natl Inst Hlth & Welf, Dept Chron Dis Prevent, Helsinki, Finland
[10] R&D AstraZeneca AB, Molndal, Sweden
[11] Danube Univ Krems, Ctr Vasc Prevent, Krems, Austria
[12] King Abdulaziz Univ, Jeddah 21413, Saudi Arabia
关键词
Diabetes; Population aging; Prevalence; IMPAIRED GLUCOSE-TOLERANCE; FASTING PLASMA-GLUCOSE; LIFE-STYLE; DIAGNOSTIC-CRITERIA; GENERAL-POPULATION; PREVENTION; MELLITUS; CANCER; RISK; CLASSIFICATION;
D O I
10.1111/jdi.12333
中图分类号
R5 [内科学];
学科分类号
1002 ; 100201 ;
摘要
Aims/IntroductionTo provide age- and sex-specific trends, age-standardized trends, and projections of diabetes prevalence through the year 2030 in the Japanese adult population. Materials and MethodsIn the present meta-regression analysis, we included 161,087 adults from six studies and nine national health surveys carried out between 1988 and 2011 in Japan. We assessed the prevalence of diabetes using a recorded history of diabetes or, for the population of individuals without known diabetes, either a glycated hemoglobin level of 6.5% (48mmol/mol) or the 1999 World Health Organization criteria (i.e., a fasting plasma glucose level of 126mg/dL and/or 2-h glucose level of 200mg/dL in the 75-g oral glucose tolerance test). ResultsFor both sexes, prevalence appeared to remain unchanged over the years in all age categories except for men aged 70years or older, in whom a significant increase in prevalence with time was observed. Age-standardized diabetes prevalence estimates based on the Japanese population of the corresponding year showed marked increasing trends: diabetes prevalence was 6.1% among women (95% confidence interval [CI] 5.5-6.7), 9.9% (95% CI 9.2-10.6) among men, and 7.9% (95% CI 7.5-8.4) among the total population in 2010, and was expected to rise by 2030 to 6.7% (95% CI 5.2-9.2), 13.1% (95% CI 10.9-16.7) and 9.8% (95% CI 8.5-12.0), respectively. In contrast, the age-standardized diabetes prevalence using a fixed population appeared to remain unchanged. ConclusionsThis large-scale meta-regression analysis shows that a substantial increase in diabetes prevalence is expected in Japan during the next few decades, mainly as a result of the aging of the adult population.
引用
收藏
页码:533 / 542
页数:10
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