Estimation of the performance of a risk prediction model for gastric cancer occurrence in Japan: Evidence from a small external population

被引:7
作者
Charvat, Hadrien [1 ]
Shimazu, Taichi [1 ]
Inoue, Manami [1 ]
Iwasaki, Motoki [1 ]
Sawada, Norie [1 ]
Yamaji, Taiki [1 ]
Tsugane, Shoichiro [1 ]
机构
[1] Natl Canc Ctr, Ctr Publ Hlth Sci, Epidemiol & Prevent Grp, Tokyo, Japan
关键词
External validation; Gastric cancer; Helicobacter pylori; Prediction model; FOOD FREQUENCY QUESTIONNAIRE; JPHC; VALIDATION;
D O I
10.1016/j.canep.2020.101766
中图分类号
R73 [肿瘤学];
学科分类号
100214 ;
摘要
Introduction: We recently developed a risk prediction model for gastric cancer which showed good performance in terms of discrimination. However, lack of external validation hampers the generalizability of our results. Methods: The study population consisted of 1292 individuals from JPHC cohort I (Omonogawa town, Akita prefecture). The previously developed model was used to predict survival for each individual at 10 years of follow-up. Results: Thirty-three cases of gastric cancer occurred during 17,246 person-years of follow-up (27 cases occurred during the first 10 years). The c-index was estimated at 0.798 at 10 years of follow-up. In terms of calibration, the Nam-d'Agostino test was non significant (p-value = 0.23). Discussion Our previously developed risk prediction model for gastric cancer showed good performance on an external population. This suggests it might be used for risk discrimination in the general Japanese population.
引用
收藏
页数:4
相关论文
共 50 条
[31]   Constructing the Prediction Model for the Risk of Stroke in a Chinese Population Report From a Cohort Study in Taiwan [J].
Chien, Kuo-Liong ;
Su, Ta-Chen ;
Hsu, Hsiu-Ching ;
Chang, Wei-Tien ;
Chen, Pei-Chun ;
Sung, Fung-Chang ;
Chen, Ming-Fong ;
Lee, Yuan-Teh .
STROKE, 2010, 41 (09) :1858-1864
[32]   An individual risk prediction model for lung cancer based on a study in a Chinese population [J].
Wang, Xu ;
Ma, Kewei ;
Cui, Jiuwei ;
Chen, Xiao ;
Jin, Lina ;
Li, Wei .
TUMORI JOURNAL, 2015, 101 (01) :16-23
[33]   Risk Prediction Model for Esophageal Cancer Among General Population: A Systematic Review [J].
Chen, Ru ;
Zheng, Rongshou ;
Zhou, Jiachen ;
Li, Minjuan ;
Shao, Dantong ;
Li, Xinqing ;
Wang, Shengfeng ;
Wei, Wenqiang .
FRONTIERS IN PUBLIC HEALTH, 2021, 9
[34]   Comparing a new risk prediction model with prostate cancer risk calculator apps in a Taiwanese population [J].
Chen, I-Hsuan Alan ;
Chu, Chi-Hsiang ;
Lin, Jen-Tai ;
Tsai, Jeng-Yu ;
Yu, Chia-Cheng ;
Sridhar, Ashwin Narasimha ;
Chand, Manish ;
Sooriakumaran, Prasanna .
WORLD JOURNAL OF UROLOGY, 2021, 39 (03) :797-802
[35]   Classifying risk level of gastric cancer: Evaluation of questionnaire-based prediction model [J].
Cao, Maomao ;
Li, He ;
Sun, Dianqin ;
Lei, Lin ;
Ren, Jiansong ;
Shi, Jufang ;
Li, Ni ;
Peng, Ji ;
Chen, Wanqing .
CHINESE JOURNAL OF CANCER RESEARCH, 2020, 32 (05) :605-+
[36]   Risk prediction model for gastric cancer within 5 years in healthy Korean adults [J].
Oh, Hyungseok ;
Cho, Sunwoo ;
Lee, Jung Ah ;
Ryu, Seungho ;
Chang, Yoosoo .
GASTRIC CANCER, 2024, 27 (04) :675-683
[37]   Risk Prediction for Gastric Cancer Using GWAS-Identifie Polymorphisms, Helicobacter pylori Infection and Lifestyle-Related Risk Factors in a Japanese Population [J].
Ishikura, Naoyo ;
Ito, Hidemi ;
Oze, Isao ;
Koyanagi, Yuriko N. ;
Kasugai, Yumiko ;
Taniyama, Yukari ;
Kawakatsu, Yukino ;
Tanaka, Tsutomu ;
Ito, Seiji ;
Tajika, Masahiro ;
Shimizu, Yasuhiro ;
Niwa, Yasumasa ;
Matsuo, Keitaro .
CANCERS, 2021, 13 (21)
[38]   A prediction model to evaluate the pretest risk of malignancy in solitary pulmonary nodules: evidence from a large Chinese southwestern population [J].
Zuohong Wu ;
Tingting Huang ;
Shiqi Zhang ;
Deyun Cheng ;
Weimin Li ;
Bojiang Chen .
Journal of Cancer Research and Clinical Oncology, 2021, 147 :275-285
[39]   Risk of Gastric and Small Intestinal Cancer in Patients With Lynch Syndrome: Data From a Large, Community-Based US Population [J].
Lin, Christina F. ;
Carwana, Holly E. ;
Jiang, Sheng-Fang ;
Li, Dan .
CLINICAL AND TRANSLATIONAL GASTROENTEROLOGY, 2024, 15 (09)
[40]   Performance of Risk Prediction Models to Select Individuals for Lung Cancer Screening in the European Population [J].
Feng, X. ;
Goodley, P. ;
Alcala, K. ;
Guida, F. ;
Johansson, M. ;
Robbins, H. A. .
JOURNAL OF THORACIC ONCOLOGY, 2023, 18 (11) :S171-S171