Monthly electric energy demand forecasting with neural networks and Fourier series

被引：92
作者：
Gonzalez-Romera, E. [1 ]
Jaramillo-Moran, M. A. [1 ]
Carmona-Fernandez, D. [1 ]
机构：
[1] Univ Extremadura, Sch Ind Engn, E-06071 Badajoz, Spain
来源：
ENERGY CONVERSION AND MANAGEMENT | 2008年 / 49卷 / 11期
关键词：
Fourier series; Load forecasting; Neural network applications; Spectral analysis; Time series;
D O I：
10.1016/j.enconman.2008.06.004
中图分类号：
O414.1 [热力学];
学科分类号：
摘要：
Medium-term electric energy demand forecasting is a useful tool for grid maintenance planning and market research of electric energy companies. Several methods, such as ARIMA, regression or artificial intelligence, have been usually used to carry out those predictions. Some approaches include weather or economic variables, which strongly influence electric energy demand. Economic variables usually influence the general series trend, while weather provides a periodic behavior because of its seasonal nature. This work investigates the periodic behavior of the Spanish monthly electric demand series, obtained by rejecting the trend from the consumption series. A novel hybrid approach is proposed: the periodic behavior is forecasted with a Fourier series while the trend is predicted with a neural network. Satisfactory results have been obtained, with a lower than 2% MAPE, which improve those reached when only neural networks or ARIMA were used for the same purpose. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码：3135 / 3142
页数：8
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