What is the current state of scientific knowledge with regard to seasonal and decadal forecasting?

被引：141
作者：
Smith, Doug M. [1 ]
Scaife, Adam A. [1 ]
Kirtman, Ben P. [2 ]
机构：
[1] Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England
[2] Univ Miami, RSMAS MPO, Miami, FL 33149 USA
来源：
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2012年 / 7卷 / 01期
关键词：
seasonal; decadal; climate; prediction; predictability; INTERDECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY; NORTH-ATLANTIC; INDIAN-OCEAN; PREDICTABILITY; OSCILLATION; PREDICTION; ENSO; ATMOSPHERE; ENSEMBLE; RAINFALL;
D O I：
10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/015602
中图分类号：
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号：
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要：
Environmental factors, such as the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme weather events, are important drivers of migration and displacement of people. There is therefore a growing need for regional climate predictions for the coming seasons to decades. This paper reviews the current state of the art of seasonal to decadal climate prediction, focusing on the potential sources of skill, forecasting techniques, current capability and future prospects.
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页数：11
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