Modelling and Forecasting the Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever Cases Number Using Hybrid Fuzzy-ARIMA

Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) cases in Indonesia have the highest number which compared to another countries in Southeast Asia. These occurs in almost all part of Indonesia including East Java, especially Malang Regency. In 2016, Malang Regency was listed as the top three regions with the highest number of DHF cases in East Java. Some actions have been done by the Regional Government and Malang Regency Public Health Office to push the occurrence of this case but the results obtained are not optimal yet. It needs the results of the DHF cases number forecasting so that early prevention of disease growth and the emergence of an outbreak can be carried out. The goal of this research are make model and forecast the number of DHF cases in Malang Indonesia. The area in Malang Regency is divided into three parts, namely lowlands, middlelands and highlands. Samples were taken from each region to get a suitable model. The results of the research in each region show that the proposed hybrid method has an accuracy that is not significantly different compared to without hybrid. The average difference in the value of SMAPE is 0.48% with the details of the average difference in SMAPE in lowlands is 1.72%, middlelands is 0.51%, and highlands is 0.22%.