Skillful Seasonal Predictions of Boreal Winter Accumulated Heating Degree-Days and Relevance for the Weather Derivative Market

被引：7

作者：

Brands, S. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Cantabria, Inst Fis Cantabria, Consejo Super Invest Cient, E-39005 Santander, Spain

来源：

JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY | 2013年 / 52卷 / 06期

关键词：

NORTH-ATLANTIC OSCILLATION; NATURAL-GAS CONSUMPTION; CLIMATE VARIABILITY; SNOW; HEMISPHERE; PREDICTABILITY; ANOMALIES; SYSTEM; STATES;

D O I：

10.1175/JAMC-D-12-0303.1

中图分类号：

P4 [大气科学（气象学）];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

It is demonstrated that boreal winter accumulated heating degree-days, a weather derivative product that is frequently demanded by energy suppliers (among others), can be skillfully predicted with a lead time of 1 month, that is, at the beginning of the previous November, for many regions of the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. This finding contradicts the assumption of poor seasonal predictability for this variable. This short paper is meant to properly inform the participants of the weather derivative market to assure market transparency and to foster a scientific discussion on how to disseminate this formerly unknown expert knowledge.

引用

页码：1297 / 1302

页数：6

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