Identifying seismic vulnerability hotspots in Bucharest

被引:18
作者
Armas, Iuliana [1 ]
Ionescu, Radu [1 ]
Gavris, Alexandru [2 ]
Toma-Danila, Dragos [1 ,3 ]
机构
[1] Univ Bucharest, 36-46 Mihail Kogalniceanu, Bucharest 050107, Romania
[2] Bucharest Univ Econ Studies, 6 Piata Romana, Bucharest 010374, Romania
[3] Natl Inst Earth Phys, 12 Calugareni Str, Magurele 077825, Ilfov County, Romania
关键词
Spatial multi-criteria analysis; Socio-economic vulnerability indices; Distances analysis; Resilience-building factors; Vulnerability hotspots; Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis; SOCIAL VULNERABILITY; NATURAL HAZARDS; FAMILY-SIZE; INDEX; DISASTER; CONTEXT; EARTHQUAKES; ATTRACTION; INDICATORS; FRAMEWORK;
D O I
10.1016/j.apgeog.2016.10.001
中图分类号
P9 [自然地理学]; K9 [地理];
学科分类号
0705 ; 070501 ;
摘要
Measuring seismic vulnerability is a complex and valuable endeavor. It allows us to focus resources where they are critically needed. In this research a variety of data was used to identify the most vulnerable areas in Bucharest in case of an earthquake. Socio-economic data from censuses in 2002 and 2011 were used to generate an overall spatial vulnerability index, while other variables such as earthquake scenarios and distance to resilience-enhancing points in space (e.g., parks, fire stations, etc.) helped to fine-tune the analysis and offered a comprehensive picture of where vulnerability hotspots can be found in an urban environment. The top three most vulnerable hotspots are analyzed and two underlying reasons for their vulnerability are proposed and discussed in more detail: education and connectedness. We applied uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to assess the stability of the results for the vulnerability hotspots. The general outcome of the research is an increase in the overall socioeconomic vulnerability in the city in spite of the upward economic trend in the period of time under analysis. Some key challenges about the origins of vulnerability are raised. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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页码:49 / 63
页数:15
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