Oil and Conflict: What Does the Cross Country Evidence Really Show?

被引:168
作者
Cotet, Anca M. [1 ]
Tsui, Kevin K. [2 ]
机构
[1] Seton Hall Univ, JH Stillman Sch Business 621, Dept Econ & Legal Studies, S Orange, NJ 07079 USA
[2] Clemson Univ, John E Walker Dept Econ, Clemson, SC 29634 USA
关键词
CIVIL-WAR; NATURAL-RESOURCES; CURSE; VARIABLES; DEMOCRACY; REGIME; INCOME; PRICE;
D O I
10.1257/mac.5.1.49
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
This paper re-examines the effect of oil wealth on political violence. Using a unique historical panel dataset of oil discoveries, we show that simply controlling for country fixed effects removes the statistical association between the value of oil reserves and civil war onset. Other macro-political violence measures, such as coup attempts, are also uncorrelated with oil wealth. To further address endogeneity concerns, we exploit changes in oil reserves due to randomness in the success of oil explorations. We find little robust evidence that oil discoveries increase the likelihood of political violence. Rather, oil discoveries increase military spending in nondemocratic countries.
引用
收藏
页码:49 / 80
页数:32
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