Probabilistic Risk Assessment Applied to Maintenance Schedule of HVDC

This paper proposes a novel risk evaluation system for HVDC planned maintenance using probabilistic method. A quantitative evaluation method is put forward to measure how HVDC system maintenance affects power system reliability. Two major indexes, which are loss of load probability (LOLP) and Security Index (SI), are chosen to construct the power grid operation risk indexes. Based on the calculation of historical operation data and advices of dispatching department, the criterion for evaluating the HVDC planned maintenance is proposed. The methodology provides an effective analysis tool for scheduling department to choose the appropriate time to arrange maintenance. Finally, a study of China Southern Power Grid is carried out in order to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed risk evaluation system.