PIPELINE REMAINING LIFE ESTIMATION BASED ON CONCEPTS OF STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND BAYESIAN INFERENCE

被引：0

作者：

Bisaggio, Helio da Cunha ^{[1
]}

Netto, Theodoro Antoun ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Agencia Nacl Petr Gas Nat & Biocombust ANP, Rio De Janeiro, RJ, Brazil

[2] COPPE Fed Univ Rio de Janeiro, Rio De Janeiro, RJ, Brazil

来源：

33RD INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON OCEAN, OFFSHORE AND ARCTIC ENGINEERING, 2014, VOL 6B: PIPELINE AND RISER TECHNOLOGY | 2014年

关键词：

D O I：

暂无

中图分类号：

P75 [海洋工程];

学科分类号：

0814 ; 081505 ; 0824 ; 082401 ;

摘要：

In this paper, structural reliability concepts are used in conjunction with DNV Recommended Practice RP-F101 [1] formulation to establish the limit state functions of corroded pipes. The model takes into account the natural spread of material properties, geometric and operational parameters, and the uncertainties associated with the sizing of eventual corrosion defects to determine the probability of failure at a given time. Bayesian and reliability concepts are used to estimate the evolution of a pre-defined distribution of defects obtained, for instance, from an inspection campaign. By comparing the predicted probability of failure with the reliability acceptance criteria the operator can schedule defect repairs and establish inspection intervals with more confidence. Thus, a simple method to predict the probability of failure of a corroded pipeline along its operational life is proposed to provide the basis to develop a risk based maintenance strategy

引用

页数：10

共 10 条

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[2] BjOrnoy O., 2001, INT OFFSH POL ENG C
[3] DNV, 2004, REC PRACT RP F101 CO
[4] Gelman A, 1996, STAT SINICA, V6, P733
[5] Hamada M., 2010, BAYESIAN RELIABILITY
[6] Kelly D., 2011, BAYESIAN INFERENCE P
[7] Estimating uncertainty in maximum pit depth from limited observational data
Melchers, R. E.
[J]. CORROSION ENGINEERING SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY, 2010, 45 (03) : 240 - 248
[8] Stephens M., 2008, 7 INT PIP C CALG CAN
[9] Stephens M., 2006, 6 INT PIP C CALG CAN
[10] Timashev S.A., 2010, 8 INT PIP C CALG CAN

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