An updated estimation of radiative forcing due to CO2 and its effect on global surface temperature change

被引:3
作者
Zhang Hua [1 ]
Zhang Ruoyu [1 ,2 ]
Shi Guangyu [3 ]
机构
[1] Natl Climate Ctr, Lab Climate Studies, China Meteorol Adm, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China
[2] Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Atmosphere Sci Acad, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
[3] Inst Atmospher Phys, State Key Lab Numer Modeling Atmospher Sci & Geop, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China
关键词
CO2; radiative forcing; surface temperature change; Global Temperature change Potential; MODELS;
D O I
10.1007/s00376-012-2204-7
中图分类号
P4 [大气科学(气象学)];
学科分类号
0706 ; 070601 ;
摘要
New estimations of radiative forcing due to CO2 were calculated using updated concentration data of CO2 and a high-resolution radiative transfer model. The stratospheric adjusted radiative forcing (ARF) due to CO2 from the year 1750 to the updated year of 2010 was found to have increased to 1.95 W m(-2), which was 17% larger than that of the IPCC's 4th Assessment Report because of the rapid increase in CO2 concentrations since 2005. A new formula is proposed to accurately describe the relationship between the ARF of CO2 and its concentration. Furthermore, according to the relationship between the ARF and surface temperature change, possible changes in equilibrium surface temperature were estimated under the scenarios that the concentration of CO2 increases to 1.5, 2, 2.5, 3, 3.5 and 4 times that of the concentration in the year 2008. The result was values of +2.2A degrees C, +3.8A degrees C, +5.1A degrees C, +6.2A degrees C, +7.1A degrees C and +8.0A degrees C respectively, based on a middle-level climate sensitivity parameter of 0.8 K (W m(-2))(-1). Non-equilibrium surface temperature changes over the next 500 years were also calculated under two kinds of emission scenarios (pulsed and sustained emissions) as a comparison, according to the Absolute Global Temperature change Potential (AGTP) of CO2. Results showed that CO2 will likely continue to contribute to global warming if no emission controls are imposed, and the effect on the Earth-atmosphere system will be difficult to restore to its original level.
引用
收藏
页码:1017 / 1024
页数:8
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