Intra-hour DNI forecasting based on cloud tracking image analysis

被引：259

作者：

Marquez, Ricardo ^{[1
]}

Coimbra, Carlos F. M. ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Calif, Sch Engn, Mech Engn & Appl Mech Grad Program, Merced, CA 95343 USA

[2] Univ Calif San Diego, Jacobs Sch Engn, Ctr Renewable Resource Integrat, Dept Mech & Aerosp Engn, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA

来源：

SOLAR ENERGY | 2013年 / 91卷

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

Solar forecasting; Sky imaging; Cloud classification; Beam radiation; DNI prediction; SOLAR-RADIATION; PREDICTION;

D O I：

10.1016/j.solener.2012.09.018

中图分类号：

TE [石油、天然气工业]; TK [能源与动力工程];

学科分类号：

0807 ; 0820 ;

摘要：

We describe an image processing methodology using Total Sky Imagers (TSIs) to generate short-term forecasts of Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) at the ground level. Specifically, we are interested in forecasting 1-min averaged DNI values for time horizons varying from 3 to 15 min. This work describes several sky image processing techniques relevant to solar forecasting, including velocity field calculations, spatial transformation of the images, and cloud classification. The solar forecasts derived here are analyzed and quantified in terms of root mean square error (RMSE) deviations in relation to actual values and compared to the performance of persistence models. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：327 / 336

页数：10

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