Lessons from the Mainland of China's Epidemic Experience in the First Phase about the Growth Rules of Infected and Recovered Cases of COVID-19 Worldwide

被引：14

作者：

Han, Chuanliang ^{[1
,2
]}

Liu, Yimeng ^{[3
,4
,5
,6
]}

Tang, Jiting ^{[3
,4
,5
,6
]}

Zhu, Yuyao ^{[3
,4
,5
,6
]}

Jaeger, Carlo ^{[5
,6
,7
]}

Yang, Saini ^{[3
,4
,5
,6
]}

机构：

[1] Beijing Normal Univ, State Key Lab Cognit Neurosci & Learning, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China

[2] Beijing Normal Univ, IDG McGovern Inst Brain Res, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China

[3] Beijing Normal Univ, Key Lab Environm Change & Nat Disaster, Minist Educ, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China

[4] Beijing Normal Univ, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China

[5] Beijing Normal Univ, Acad Disaster Reduct & Emergency Management, Minist Emergency Management, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China

[6] Beijing Normal Univ, Minist Educ, Fac Geog Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China

[7] Global Climate Forum, D-10178 Berlin, Germany

来源：

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK SCIENCE | 2020年 / 11卷 / 04期

基金：

中国国家自然科学基金;

关键词：

China; COVID-2019; Epidemiological properties; Logistic model; Pandemic; OUTBREAK; WUHAN;

D O I：

10.1007/s13753-020-00294-7

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

The first phase of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) that emerged at the end of 2019 has been brought under control in the mainland of China in March, while it is still spreading globally. When the pandemic will end is a question of great concern. A logistic model that depicts the growth rules of infected and recovered cases in China's mainland may shed some light on this question. This model well explained the data by 13 April from 31 countries that have been experiencing serious COVID-2019 outbreaks (R-2 >= 0.95). Based on this model, the semi-saturation period (SSP) of infected cases in those countries ranges from 3 March to 18 June. According to the linear relationship between the growth rules for infected and for recovered cases identified from the Chinese data, we predicted that the SSP of the recovered cases outside China ranges from 22 March to 8 July. More importantly, we found a strong positive correlation between the SSP of infected cases and the timing of a government's response. Finally, this model was also applied to four regions that went through other coronavirus or Ebola virus epidemics (R-2 >= 0.95). There is a negative correlation between the death rate and the logistic growth rate. These findings provide strong evidence for the effectiveness of rapid epidemic control measures in various countries.

引用

页码：497 / 507

页数：11