How strong are the linkages between real estate and other sectors in China?

被引：39

作者：

Chan, Steven ^{[1
]}

Han, Gaofeng ^{[1
]}

Zhang, Wenlang ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Hong Kong Monetary Author, Res Dept, 55-F,2 IFC,8 Financial St, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Peoples R China

来源：

RESEARCH IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS AND FINANCE | 2016年 / 36卷

关键词：

IO analysis; Default likelihood; Financial linkages; DAG; Structural VAR; FINANCIAL RATIOS; MODEL; PREDICTION; BANKRUPTCY; RISK; CYCLES;

D O I：

10.1016/j.ribaf.2015.09.018

中图分类号：

F8 [财政、金融];

学科分类号：

0202 ;

摘要：

International experience points to the critical role of stable property markets in maintaining financial stability. This paper investigates the real and financial linkages between real estate sector and other sectors. The real linkage based on input-output analysis shows that the linkages have strengthened. The financial linkages in terms of credit risk spillovers across sectors are studied by using DAG method and SVAR. We find that that credit risk in the real estate sector has large-scale spillover effects onto other sectors. Consequently, shocks to the property market could have much larger impact on the Chinese economy than suggested by headline figures. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：52 / 72

页数：21

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