Multiregional Input-Output Analysis of Spatial-Temporal Evolution Driving Force for Carbon Emissions Embodied in Interprovincial Trade and Optimization Policies: Case Study of Northeast Industrial District in China

In the counties with rapid economy and carbon emissions (CEs) growth, CEs embodied in interprovincial trade (CEs-PT) significantly impacts the CEs amount and structure and represents a key issue to consider in CEs reduction policies formulation. This study applied EEBT and two-stage SDA model to analyze the characteristics and driving force of spatial-temporal evolution for net CEs-PT outflow in the Northeast Industrial District of China (NID). We found that, during 1997-2007, the net CEs-PT flowed out from NID to 16 south and east provinces, then to 23 provinces all over China, and its amount has increased 216.798Mt (by 211.67% per year). The main driving forces are technology and demand (further decomposed into structure and scale matrix); the contribution are 71.6418 Mt and 145.1562 Mt. Then, we constructed coupling relationship model and took the top three industries with the greatest net CEs-PT outflow (farming, forestry, animal husbandry and fisheries, electricity and heat production and supply, petroleum processing, coking, and nuclear fuel processing) as examples, adjusted the interprovincial trade constructions, scales, and objects, to reduce the CEs-PT with lower costs, greater effect, and more equitability. The achievement could provide reference for formulating CEs reduction policies for similar areas in the world characterized by rapid growth of economy and CEs.