Predictive value of the induction test with atrial burst pacing with regard to long-term recurrence after ablation in persistent atrial fibrillation

Background Induction test of atrial fibrillation (AF) is one of endpoint measures in catheter ablation (CA). However, its predictive value in long-term outcome remains controversial. Methods Ninety-eight patients (61 years, 77 males) with persistent AF who underwent pulmonary vein antrum isolation-based CA were retrospectively analyzed. We determined whether inducibility of AF/atrial tachyarrhythmias (AT) by atrial burst pacing at the end of CA and other characteristics were associated with the recurrence of AF/AT. Atrial burst pacing was performed with 30-beat from the coronary sinus; increasing from 240 to 320 ppm. Inducibility was defined as AF/AT lasting >= 5 minutes following atrial burst pacing. Results AF/AT was induced in 50 patients (51%). During 1 year of follow-up, 71 patients (72.4%) had no recurrence of AF/AT. A logistic regression analysis showed that female gender (OR 3.8; P = 0.02), multiple sessions (OR 3.5; P = 0.02), and early recurrence of AF/AT (OR 5.3; P = 0.004) were associated with clinical recurrence. AF/AT Inducibility was not associated with clinical recurrence (P = 0.65). A subanalysis in patients with enlarged LA (LA diameter >= 45 mm, n = 40) showed that AF/AT inducibility was associated with recurrence (OR 8.1; P = 0.04). The positive and negative predictive values of AF/AT inducibility for AF/AT recurrence were 41 and 89%, respectively. Negative predictive value was increased to 92.3% when the inducibility was defined as AF/AT of >= 30 seconds following atrial burst pacing. Conclusions AF/AT inducibility cannot predict long-term clinical recurrence in patients with persistent AF. However, it may have a prognostic value especially in patients with enlarged LA.