Acoustic emissions document stress changes over many seismic cycles in stick-slip experiments

The statistics of large earthquakes commonly involve large uncertainties due to the lack of long-term, robust earthquake recordings. Small-scale seismic events are abundant and can be used to examine variations in fault structure and stress. We report on the connection between stress and microseismic event statistics prior to the possibly smallest earthquakes: those generated in the laboratory. We investigate variations in seismic b value of acoustic emission events during the stress buildup and release on laboratory-created fault zones. We show that b values mirror periodic stress changes that occur during series of stick-slip events, and are correlated with stress over many seismic cycles. Moreover, the amount of b value increase associated with slip events indicates the extent of the corresponding stress drop. Consequently, b value variations can be used to approximate the stress state on a fault: a possible tool for the advancement of time-dependent seismic hazard assessment.