Investing in the future: The one child policy and reform

Since the One Child Policy was implemented in 1979, it has been examined closely for both its perceived developmental benefits and the negative effects it has had on women. To ensure compliance with the policy birth planning officials have used both incentives and punitive measures, with different results in urban and rural areas. In the urban sector, the policy has effectively reduced population growth, with suggestions that a lasting change has occurred in terms of attitudes on family size and the value of daughters. To illustrate these changes a cohort analysis of 292 women in Beijing is used, offering insight into changing family dynamics, sex ratios, and human capital investments as a result of the One Child Policy. This article then analyzes the current state of the policy and questions its continued implementation on the basis of the numerous exceptions allowed to the one child rule and the declining worker to retiree ratios that threaten the economic stability of China's aging population. The trends uncovered raise important questions about the role of the policy in China's long term development goals and suggest further reforms are needed.