Estimating the Lifetime Risk of a Diagnosis of the HIV Infection in 33 States, 2004-2005

Purpose: We estimated lifetime risk and age-conditional risk of being diagnosed with HIV in 33 states with name-based HIV reporting. Methods: We used vital statistics data on general and HIV-specific mortality, census data, and HIV surveillance data to calculate cross-sectional, period-specific (2004-2005), and age-specific probabilities of an HIV diagnosis. The probabilities were applied to a hypothetical cohort of 10 million live births, and estimates were derived for the lifetime risk, from birth, of being diagnosed with HIV. Results: The estimated lifetime risk of being diagnosed with HIV was 1.87% for males (95% confidence limit: 1.86 to 1.89) or 1 in 53 males and 0.71% for females (95% confidence limit: 0.70-0.72) or 1 in 141 females. Blacks and Hispanics experienced higher estimated lifetime risk of HIV than whites: 6.23% or 1 in 16 for blacks, 2.88% or 1 in 35 for Hispanics, 0.96% or 1 in 104 for white males; 3.29% or 1 in 30 for blacks, 0.88% or 1 in 114 for Hispanics, and 0.17% or 1 in 588 for white females. The highest risk of HIV diagnosis was observed among people in their 30s. Conclusions: These estimates may help to communicate the risk of HIV infection to affected communities, increase public awareness, and promote early detection and prevention efforts for HIV.