Future nuclear perspectives based on MESSAGE integrated assessment modeling

Nuclear energy has the potential to be a vital component toward a clean energy strategy - but future energy systems may or may not include nuclear power. This study explores a range of future nuclear pathways consistent with different levels of energy demand, and explicitly assesses the implications of a potential global nuclear energy phase-out. In our scenarios the mitigation of climate change is one of the main factors driving a much needed transformation of the global energy system. A range of climate change mitigation scenarios is outlined and compared to a business-as-usual case. The scenarios are characteristic of different approaches to climate mitigation, including alternative combinations of supply and demand-side changes. Our analysis indicates that under a comprehensive and global mitigation effort, the stabilization of GHG concentrations at low levels (450 ppm CO2) would be technically achievable even at high energy demand and with a nuclear phase-out. We identify that significant investments in energy efficiency improvements and demand reduction offer the most flexibility in energy supply options and may or may not include nuclear power. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.