On the directional accuracy of survey forecasts: the case of gold and silver

We use a nonparametric market-timing test to study the directional accuracy of survey forecasts of the prices of gold and silver. We find that forecasters have market-timing ability with respect to the direction of change of the price of silver at various forecast horizons. In contrast, forecasters have no market-timing ability with respect to the direction of change in the gold price. Combining forecasts of both metal prices to set up a multivariate market-timing test yields no evidence of joint predictability of the directions of change of the prices of gold and silver.