Wrong but Useful - What Covid-19 Epidemiologic Models Can and Cannot Tell Us

被引：260

作者：

Holmdahl, Inga ^{[1
]}

Buckee, Caroline ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Harvard TH Chan Sch Publ Hlth, Ctr Communicable Dis Dynam, Boston, MA 02115 USA

来源：

NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE | 2020年 / 383卷 / 04期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1056/NEJMp2016822

中图分类号：

R5 [内科学];

学科分类号：

1002 ; 100201 ;

摘要：

Mechanistic epidemiologic models are designed to help us systematically examine the implications of various assumptions about a highly nonlinear process that is hard to predict using only intuition. Used appropriately, they can help guide us through this pandemic.

引用

页码：303 / 305

页数：3

共 5 条

[1]

Jewell NP, 2020, ANN INTERN MED

[2]

Lipsitch M, 2020, NY TIMES

[3]

Lu FS, 2020, PREPRINT, DOI DOI 10.1101/2020.04.18.20070821V1

[4] Social contacts and mixing patterns relevant to the spread of infectious diseases [J].

Mossong, Joeel ;

Hens, Niel ;

Jit, Mark ;

Beutels, Philippe ;

Auranen, Kari ;

Mikolajczyk, Rafael ;

Massari, Marco ;

Salmaso, Stefania ;

Tomba, Gianpaolo Scalia ;

Wallinga, Jacco ;

Heijne, Janneke ;

Sadkowska-Todys, Malgorzata ;

Rosinska, Magdalena ;

Edmunds, W. John .

PLOS MEDICINE, 2008, 5 (03) :381-391

[5]

Weinberger D, 2020, BIORXIV, DOI [10.1101/2020.04.15.20066431v2, DOI 10.1101/2020.04.15.20066431V2]

← 1 →