Predicting Student Success in CS2: A Study of CS1 Exam Questions

A number of published studies indicate that many students who receive passing grades in CS1 may struggle in CS2. This can lead to higher attrition and failure rates in CS2, and perhaps also in subsequent courses in the curriculum. Many researchers have studied factors that lead to student success and common misconceptions that may arise in introductory courses. However, relatively little attention has been focused on the transition between CS1 and CS2. In this paper, we report on a study of a variety of types of CS1 exam questions, with the goal of finding questions that can predict a student's success (or lack of success) in CS2. Results indicate that code explanation and code completion questions can be especially good predictors, along with some code tracing questions. We discuss some of the factors that may make certain questions better predictors than others, in the process confirming some observations that have been reported by other researchers. The results from this experiment seem promising, and point to several possibilities for further research.