Progression of myopic maculopathy in a Caucasian cohort of highly myopic patients with long follow-up: a multistate analysis

Purpose This study aims to determine the probability of progression of myopic maculopathy according to age. Methods This is a longitudinal observational study of single-center retrospective cohort of Caucasian patients formed by 212 consecutive adults with high myopia. Main outcome measures were age, visual acuity (VA), refractive error (RE), follow-up time, and the macular status assessed at least 5 years apart according to the Meta-Analysis of Pathologic Myopia Study Group. The progression rate was calculated based on per 1000 eyes/year. Multistate models were fitted to identify the predictive factors and to calculate the most probable age of progression onset using the Aalen-Johansen estimator. Results We studied 220 eyes of 122 Caucasian patients. Mean age was 48.18 +/- 14.1, mean follow-up 12.73 +/- 5.81 years. One-hundred and fifty-two (69.1%) eyes progressed of category, and 96 (44%) worsened a mean of 0.3 logMAR units during follow-up. The progression rate was 32.21/1000 eyes/year. The probability of progressing increased with age; it was higher in women if there was a family history of myopia, worse VA, higher RE, or wide macular staphyloma. The probability of progressing from category 1 was > 0.6 after 70 years of age; from category 2, it was 0.7 after 70 years; and 0.5 from category 3 after 75 years. If choroidal neovascularization (CNV) appeared, this probability exceeded 0.7 between ages 45 and 55 for all categories. Conclusion The progression rate is lower than in a Japanese series. The vision worsened with disease progression, and the probability of both happening increased after the age of 70-75. If CNV appears, the risk of progression is very high at the age of 45-55.